|Date||Thursday 8th of April 2021|
EURUSD – The Euro accelerated past 1.19 following FOMC minutes, before reversing back below the 1.1875 resistance earlier this morning. The momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still looks strong, especially since Eurozone PMI prints yesterday showed a bounce in business activity adding to the optimism that the EU will have sufficient supplies to vaccinate at least 50% of its populations by June. But the EURUSD will have to close above the 200-Day SMA to follow through. Alternatively, a dip below the 50-period moving average around 1.1860 will trigger an acceleration to the downside ahead of the US jobless claims due later today.
GBPUSD – Cable trades above 1.3750 extending the overnight recovery from near 1.3725 as the US dollar corrects lower following the FOMC minutes yesterday coupled with a successful rollout of the Moderna vaccines which is speeding up the vaccination campaign in the UK. A sustained move above 1.3765 to push GBPUSD to a retest of the 200-period moving average around 1.3820.
USDJPY – We highlighted yesterday that there is a strong possibility for USDJPY to test the ¥109.65 support. However, after three consecutive tests, the forex pair has failed to break this key level, despite Wednesday’s upbeat Fed minutes and a current account surplus in Japan of ¥2.92 trillion versus a forecast of ¥1.97 trillion. A breach of the ¥109.65 support will trigger an acceleration to the downside ahead of today’s US Jobless Claims report and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
FTSE 100 – A successful rollout of the Moderna vaccine is speeding up the vaccination campaign in the UK and boosting sentiment, as the FTSE100 surged past the 6840 resistance level reaching as high as 6915 ahead of UK Markit construction PMI at 0930 BST. A sustained move above 6915 to trigger an acceleration to the 6960 yearly highs, however momentum as measured by the RSI is fading, with a break of the 50-period moving average around 6880 to prompt further declines back to 6840.
DOW JONES – Unanimity over Fed Chair Powell’s dovish view boosted risk sentiment in yesterday’s session, pushing stocks to another round of all time highs, with Janet Yellen’s new tax code continuing to take a back seat. Resurging Covid-19 cases along with potential vaccine bottlenecks could dent investor optimism in today’s session, with 33573 the key resistance level needed to be breached for further upside.
DAX 30 – 8th consecutive close in the green for the German index, tracking its American peers higher as the S&P 500 registered another record on the back of a united Fed view on the need to see more progress on recovery before any tapering attempts. Just released German month-on-month factory orders came in as expected at 1.20% with all eyes on Eurozone PPI data along with the ECB’s monetary policy meeting accounts. Failure to breach 15324 resistance level will favor a pullback towards 15150 support.
GOLD – Gold has formed a base above $1736, with bullish momentum building up, awaiting a confirmation on an hourly close above $1744 to open the door to further upside with $1754 and $1760 as next targets in extension. Yesterday’s Fed minutes confirmed once again the Fed’s accommodative stance, with all eye’s today on Powell’s comments (at the panel about the global economy) and Initial Jobless Claims data (consensus at 680K).
USOIL – Rising Covid-19 cases with India topping 100K daily infections, Canada’s most popular province declaring a state of emergency, along with ongoing AstraZeneca vaccine drama, is keeping a lid on higher prints on WTI Crude, despite EIA inventory data hitting a five-week low. Technicals favor another retest of $58.50 support level in today’s session, with an hourly close below it to strengthen bearish momentum.
Chief Market Analyst at SquaredFinancial
Rony has over twenty years of experience in financial planning and professional proprietary trading in the equity and currency markets. Prior to joining SquaredFinancial, Rony educated and coached numerous traders helping them find their edge and arming them with proven trading methodologies to successfully battle the markets. Rony obtained a B.S. in Finance from Concordia University in Montreal, and his professional designations include Certified Financial Planner CFP® obtained from the Canadian Securities Institute.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes and is not an investment recommendation. The information here has been created by SquaredFinancial. All examples and analysis used herein are of the personal opinions of SquaredFinancial. All examples and analysis are intended for these purposes and should not be considered as specific investment advice. The risk of loss in trading securities, options, futures, and forex can be substantial. Customers must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading.